How We Predict
Every prediction on this site is grounded in data, not guesswork. We built our prediction engine to be transparent — here is exactly how it works.
What Data We Use
- FIFA Official Rankings — the baseline for team strength comparison, updated monthly.
- Recent Match Results — last 20 international fixtures per team, weighted by recency.
- Tournament History — World Cup data from 1930 to 2022, including knockout progression patterns.
- Squad Composition — player club performance levels, injury reports, and availability.
- Head-to-Head Records — historical match results weighted by competitive importance.
The Model
Our ensemble model combines five weighted factors:
How Probabilities Work
For each match, we run 10,000 simulated outcomes using a Monte Carlo approach. The win/draw/loss percentages you see are the proportion of those simulations in which each result occurred.
Our accuracy is tracked using the Brier Score (a proper scoring rule for probabilistic predictions) and back-tested against 2018, 2022 World Cup and Euro 2020, 2024 results.
Last model calibration: June 9, 2026.
Important Disclaimer
All predictions on this website are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Football is inherently unpredictable — that is what makes it the most popular sport in the world.
We are not a betting service. We do not accept wagers. Our predictions are data-driven estimates, not guarantees. Past performance does not predict future results.